The New Nokia: worst case scenario

Meego

Meego becomes an OS only for tablets, for now. In 2013 Microsoft will have tablet-optimized Windows 8 running on ARM processors. Nokia starts to use that and Meego gets retired completely.

Windows Phone 7

Windows Phone 7 becomes Nokia’s OS for high end smartphones. However, Nokia’s Windows Phone 7 devices will get lackluster reception: the devices will be buggy in Nokia’s old fashion.

Symbian

From now on Symbian will be used only in low end smartphones whose price is $200 and below without subsidies. Symbian will be updated time to time and will continue to have moderate success.

Ovi Store

Without support for Ovi Store in Windows Phone 7, the Ovi Store will stagnate. In 2013 Nokia will replace Ovi Store with Microsoft’s application store.

Qt

Microsoft promises that Nokia can port Qt to Windows Phone 7. However, the project gets late and the first version of Qt for Windows Phone 7 comes out only in 2013. At that time, it is already too late, and Microsoft’s C# and Silverlight has become the standard language for application development for Nokia’s devices.

Qt will stay as the preferred programming environment for Symbian.

Summary

In only 2-3 years Microsoft will gain control over Nokia. Nokia’s smartphone market share will drop down to 20% as Nokia’s Windows Phone 7 devices will not get good reception.

At that time, Stephen Elop will resign and move to some other company to do restructuring. Nokia has lost all their remaining significance in the smart phone race.


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